War and Lies

Liberty Papers 1.0

“Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it.” -Laurence J. Peter

“The most shocking fact about war is that its victims and its instruments are individual human beings, and that these individual beings are condemned by the monstrous conventions of politics to murder and be murdered in quarrels not their own.” -Aldous Huxley

“The opposite of war isn’t peace, it’s creation.” -Jonathan Larson

Liberty Papers 0.2

Liberty Papers 1.0

First, an update. I’ve joined a startup and have less time to focus on the world and comment on what I see there, here. I will continue to write. It’s far too cathartic and enjoyable to stop altogether. It will just become a lot more infrequent and sporadic. I am also postponing indefinitely my plan to turn on a paywall for this work. If I do ultimately monetize Liberty Papers it will be because I have redevoted myself to publishing at a rate that aims to justify financial sponsorship.

Liberty Papers is nearing the anniversary of its first post. It’s been an incredible period of growth for me and wildly educational. Thank you all for sticking with me as I developed my voice. Thank you for grappling with these ideas with me. Thank you in particular to the many people who have helped me in huge ways and small.

Now, a few observations before I put my pen into hibernation.

The US

It’s looking ever more likely that we’ll have the dubious pleasure of a second Trump term. I’ve thought since the beginning of the race that Vivek Ramaswamy was never running to be president; he was running to be picked as Trump’s runningmate. If that’s true and if he’s chosen, it could be a particularly entertaining four years with Trump distracting the media while Vivek runs through the halls of D.C. wielding a sledgehammer. The people who want to watch the world burn will have a field day. Bring popcorn.

If the democrats are playing 4d chess, they might welcome a loss to a second Trump term. Why not let him win and take the fall for the economic disaster fiscal recklessness has wrought? Trump would be all too happy to inherit a broken economy and a world at war. When democrats inevitably retake the Whitehouse in 2028, they can come in as saviors of the republic. If they win again in 2024, that could counterintuitively be bad for their brand if it means that an economic crisis happens on their watch. If that is their strategy, it’s going really well. They could also be in the process of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory as is their wont. Time will tell.

Either way, the people in the halls of power are behaving like the country no longer matters and are just getting theirs while the getting’s good. Another funding bill for Ukraine which they’ve already admitted mostly boomerangs to American businesses (read: grift) is such a cynical way to ride out the death of the dollar empire. Perhaps there is no other way it could go. New senators are embracing bitcoin. The pie must have become irresistible. I want to believe in America as an ideal but watching the country be looted while regular people are struggling is incredibly difficult.

The world

The choppy waters in the Middle East continue to get choppier. Every day seems to bring a new escalation. The Cold War never ended; it was just ignored because people were making money. Now that the global monetary order is unraveling, the Cold War has turned hot. Peace is the anomaly. War is the norm.

The “C” word

It’s becoming harder to resist the idea that Covid was a lab leak. And, if that’s the case, then China behaved disgracefully with their obvious coverup. It also means the American people (and all people) were lied to. Other revelations make it clear that people are systematically lied to by those they’ve entrusted with power. Trust in institutions is probably never coming back. Was it worth it?

The economy

The economy means less and less and the stock market means more and more. The panem et circenses of the modern era might be cryptos and the stock market. As long as the casino remains open and political outsiders have a lottery ticket in their hands and can thereby participate in the looting, perhaps the riots in the streets will wait.

Clearly, the economic data coming out of the BEA, BLS, and NBER are lies designed to keep markets calm and to retain the status quo, at least through the election. Redefining the word recession and reformulating inflation so that there is no recession and there is no inflation is just such obvious manipulation of the data designed to fuel the narrative. Economists and market participants continue to credulously believe them. Perhaps it continues to profit them to do so.

Money

Inflation has softened but these things are cyclical. Another wave is likely incoming but by then the meaningless metrics which track it may have been so thoroughly broken that the new wave won’t register very much. If there is a market crash and the Fed is forced to cut rates, the frenzy of markets and cryptos going up will distract people enough that they probably won’t care about the price of milk or eggs. Regardless, the currency is being debauched and, with it, civil society.

Unrest

All the factions of the earth seem to be at war: the aged against the young, men against women, rich against poor, neighbor against neighbor. There are no winners in war, only destruction. After the destruction is complete, we’ll have to rebuild. The world will have taken a big step backward. The world that we rebuild is unlikely to resemble the world as it is now. Will it be better? The answer to that question is not a foregone conclusion.

Hope

I believe in the power of the human spirit. People who are well fed want to share their table. People who have had success want to help others succeed. People who have been hurt want to prevent others from suffering similarly. When resources drain, people will survive. Sometimes that means they will behave badly as they currently are in pockets of society now. Things may get worse before they get better. But in the end, they will get better. Everything is cyclical. If we see a new trough, you can be sure we’ll see a new peak.

We are in an apparent superposition between economic perfection and economic breakdown. I still suspect a reckoning is incoming. We never truly paid the price for the credit crisis of the great financial crisis of 2008. We just papered over it, rewarding the bad actors. In attempting to abolish the business and credit cycles, the monetary policymakers have simply lengthened the period and greatly intensified the amplitude of these cycles. On the ocean, small waves with small periods are the norm and have a name; they’re called waves. Long period, high amplitude waves also have a name; they’re called tsunamis. If we get the economic tsunami that has seemed in the offing for the past few years, it will be nothing short of revolutionary. No amount of money printing will paper over this one. It may seem ridiculous to do so now but it’s probably not too early to prepare the boats.

Aldous Huxley